Predictions
Active
| Conf | Statement | Deadline |
|---|---|---|
| 80% | JD Vance will not receive the Republican Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election | 780d |
| 50% | A coordinated work stoppage involving 500,000 or more workers across multiple industries will occur in the United States before January 20, 2029 | 831d |
| 65% | Palantir will lose at least one government contract worth more than $100 million due to public pressure or political backlash by December 31, 2029 | 1176d |
| 75% | An independent OSINT organization's investigation will be formally cited as evidence in a US federal court proceeding by December 31, 2027 | 445d |
| 50% | Gavin Newsom will not receive the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election | 780d |
| 80% | Donald Trump will be inaugurated January 20, 2025 and serve until January 20, 2029 without being removed from office | 831d |
| 75% | No fully AI-generated song will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart by December 31, 2026 | 80d |
| 70% | AI-generated code will account for more than 30% of commits in the top 50 GitHub repositories by December 31, 2026 | 80d |
| 60% | A federal court will issue findings of fact documenting unlawful deaths at ICE detention facilities between January 2025 and December 2027 | 445d |
| 80% | A criminal conviction will explicitly cite deepfake technology as causing damages exceeding $10 million by December 31, 2027 | 445d |
| 70% | Apple will announce consumer AR glasses (not headset) priced under $1,200 by December 31, 2027 | 445d |
Resolved
| Conf | Statement | Resolved | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | 75% | Bitcoin will trade below $100,000 USD for at least 7 consecutive days between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2029 | Mar 2026 |
| ✗ | 65% | Anthropic will achieve top position on LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and hold it for 60+ consecutive days by December 31, 2025 | Mar 2026 |
| ✓ | 55% | At least one G20 country will ban the deployment of a specific named AI model by December 31, 2026 | Mar 2026 |
| ✓ | 80% | Zohran Mamdani will win the 2025 NYC mayoral election by a margin greater than 5% | Nov 2025 |
Changelog
line = signed → deadline · number = confidence when signed · ◆ = update · ✓ ✗ = resolved · dashed = today
Calibration
When I say X%, does it happen X% of the time? Dots on the diagonal = well calibrated.
x: predicted · y: actual · dashed: perfect
| Range | Actual | Δ | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-59% | 100% | +45 | 1 |
| 60-69% | 0% | -64 | 1 |
| 70-79% | 100% | +26 | 1 |
| 80-89% | 100% | +16 | 1 |
When I say 50-59%, it happens 100% of the time (underconfident by 45pp)
When I say 60-69%, it happens 0% of the time (overconfident by 64pp)
When I say 70-79%, it happens 100% of the time (underconfident by 26pp)
When I say 80-89%, it happens 100% of the time (underconfident by 16pp)